The following is a summary of findings from a telephone survey conducted among 400 likely Democratic primary voters in the new 10th Congressional District of Illinois. Interviews were conducted February 14-15, 2012. The sampling error for this survey is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
With just a month to go until the March 20th primary, Brad Schneider has pulled into the lead in the four-way primary in the Tenth Congressional district of Illinois.
Brad Schneider 29%
Ilya Sheyman 14%
John Tree 4%
Vivek Bavda 2%
His lead is even larger among voters who voted in at least 3 of the last 4 Democratic primaries, voters age 50 and older, women, union households, Jewish voters and those who are strongly pro-choice.
Schneider has increased his name identification to 49% and enjoys a 29%-8% favorable to unfavorable rating. Sheyman has just 34% name identification. Schneider’s lead is not simply a reflection of his broader recognition. Among voters who know both candidates, Schneider leads 42% to 26%, indicating that Democrats will continue to prefer Brad Schneider as both candidates continue their communications.
Schneider leads Sheyman on being “progressive on the issues,” “understanding the problems of the middle class,” “having the right experience” and “will do a better job on the economy and jobs.” On every measure, voters prefer Schneider.
Schneider has begun using direct voter communication to convey his stances of being 100% pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, pro-environment and pro-small business and these poll results indicate his efforts are clearly working with voters. Among those who recall receiving communication from Schneider, he leads Sheyman 48% to 14%. The more voters hear from Schneider, the more they support him.
This district is the most Democratic district in the country that is currently held by a Republican and represents a prime pickup opportunity. Viability in the general election is, and should be, a key concern. On this count, Schneider also has a clear advantage. Among voters who know both candidates, 41% think Brad Schneider “can beat Bob Dold in November” while only 17% think Sheyman can.
Schneider is in good position to win on March 20th and go on to pick up this seat for Democrats against Bob Dold.
Brad Schneider is building a solid campaign capitalizing on his superior financial resources. He had more than $450,000 cash on hand at the end of 2011. He is using those resources to build a solid field campaign and send direct mail. Schneider also enjoys the support of IBEW 134, Ironworkers 63, Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers District Council of Illinois, the Chicago Painters Local 147, the Transport Workers Union Illinois-Indiana State Conference, the Vernon Township Democrats, the Maine Township Democrats, State Representative Julie Hamos, Mayor Marty Moylan, State Senator Susan Garrett, State Senator Jeff Schoenberg, Congresswoman Melissa Bean and Congressman Steny Hoyer