AS OF 1 P.M. … DOW: Down 691 points, or 2.66%. … S&P 500: Down 77 points, or 2.68%.
THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR TRUMP: Does he view the tumble in the stock market as temporary? Does he believe the electorate will forgive him for either short-term or long-term economic pain if it means the prospect of getting back to even footing with China? The election is 18 months away, but experts are projecting long-term pain from an extended trade war with China.
— IF THE PRESIDENT FOLDS and cuts some deal, how does he do it — politically? And when — after how much pain — does he back off his hard-line stance? How much runway do Republicans give him, and can they wrest back some international trade authority from the administration?
TRADE WAR LATEST … “China Hits Back With Tariffs on $60 Billion in U.S. Goods,” by WSJ’s Chao Deng in Beijing: “China fired back at the U.S. Monday, raising tariffs on roughly $60 billion worth of U.S. goods in retaliation for President Trump’s decision to escalate tariffs on Chinese imports. U.S. financial markets fell sharply in early trading after China announced it will raise tariffs to as high as 25% on products it currently taxes at 5% to 10% starting June 1. …
“China said tariffs will increase to 10%, 20% or 25% for most of the 5,140 U.S. products on which it currently imposes levies of 5% or 10%. Goods that China will charge at 25% include animal products, frozen fruits and vegetables and seasonings. Goods it will charge at 20% include baking condiments, chemicals and vodka. Tariffs will stay at 5% for certain items, including vehicle parts, medical equipment and farm equipment such as tractors.
“For now, China is not extending to items that aren’t currently subject to levies, notably aircraft such as Boeing Co. jetliners and U.S. crude oil. China must import both oil and passenger aircraft to meet domestic demand.” WSJ
— THE PRESIDENT TWEETS ABOUT CHINA … at 6:49 a.m.: “I say openly to President Xi & all of my many friends in China that China will be hurt very badly if you don’t make a deal because companies will be forced to leave China for other countries. Too expensive to buy in China. You had a great deal, almost completed, & you backed out!”
… at 7:02 a.m.: “The unexpectedly good first quarter 3.2% GDP was greatly helped by Tariffs from China. Some people just don’t get it!” (Response from Cliff Asness, hedge fund billionaire: @cliffordasness: “He is right, I don’t get it. My bad.”)
… at 11:55 a.m.: “There is no reason for the U.S. Consumer to pay the Tariffs, which take effect on China today. This has been proven recently when only 4 points were paid by the U.S., 21 points by China because China subsidizes product to such a large degree. Also, the Tariffs can be…..”
… “…completely avoided if you buy from a non-Tariffed Country, or you buy the product inside the USA (the best idea). That’s Zero Tariffs. Many Tariffed companies will be leaving China for Vietnam and other such countries in Asia. That’s why China wants to make a deal so badly!…”
… “..There will be nobody left in China to do business with. Very bad for China, very good for USA! But China has taken so advantage of the U.S. for so many years, that they are way ahead (Our Presidents did not do the job). Therefore, China should not retaliate-will only get worse!”
NOT JUST CHINA … INCOMING … BLOOMBERG’S MARIA TADEO: “The European Union is finalizing a list of American goods to target with retaliatory tariffs in the event that U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to make a decision by May 18, imposes levies on car imports. … The EU will hit 20 billion euros ($22.5 billion) of U.S. goods if Trump follows through on the auto threat. …
“A 25 percent U.S. levy on foreign cars would add 10,000 euros to the sticker price of European vehicles imported into the country, according to the European Commission.” Bloomberg
Good Monday afternoon.
SCOTUS WATCH — WAPO’S TONY ROMM and ROBERT BARNES: “Supreme Court rules against Apple, allowing lawsuit targeting App Store to proceed”: “The 5-4 decision allows device owners to proceed with a case that alleges Apple has acted as a monopoly by requiring iPhone and iPad users to download apps only from its portal while taking a cut of some sales made through the store.
“The ruling could have serious repercussions for one of Apple’s most lucrative lines of business, while opening the door for similar legal action targeting other tech giants in Silicon Valley. But the court’s opinion — led by conservative Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, who joined its liberal justices in the majority — did not rule on the merits of the lawsuit itself.” WaPo
CLICKER … WASHINGTONIAN: “Inside the Pampered and Personalized World of DC’s VIP Diners,” by Jessica Sidman
HEADS UP — “Sweden reopens rape case against WikiLeaks’ Julian Assange, wants extradition,” by WaPo’s Karla Adam in London: “Speaking Monday at a news conference in Stockholm, Eva-Marie Persson, Sweden’s deputy director of public prosecutions, said there is ‘still a probable cause to suspect that Assange committed rape.’ In her assessment, she said, ‘a new questioning of Assange is required.’ …
“The Swedish investigation has been reopened at the request of the alleged victim. … If both [the U.S. and Sweden] seek to extradite Assange, it will be up to British officials to decide which request, if any, to prioritize.” WaPo
ON THE WORLD STAGE — “China ‘has no interest’ in joining U.S.-Russia nuclear deal,” via the AP in Moscow
IMMIGRATION FILES — NYT’S ANNA FLAGG: “Is There a Connection Between Undocumented Immigrants and Crime? It’s a widely held perception, but a new analysis finds no evidence to support it.” NYT
WUNDERKIND WATCH — ELIANA JOHNSON: “Inside Jared Kushner’s two missions impossible”: “With a headlong plunge into immigration reform and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Kushner is presenting his political inexperience as an asset, telling lawmakers he is free of preconceived notions that stymied previous attempts. His air of breezy self-assurance in the private meetings he is conducting to tease his plans at times astounds the battle-scarred veterans of past such efforts. Critics complain, too, that his briefings are often woefully short on detail.
“Kushner has been talking up his immigration plan with the aid of a PowerPoint presentation, which detractors have derided as laughably simplistic. In the version he debuted to lawmakers on Tuesday, the slides showed circles placed next to each other representing different potential immigration reforms and flags denoting ‘peer nations’ that have adopted merit-based immigration systems … Privately, Kushner and his allies hope that he and the president will get credit for putting forward proposals that move beyond the president’s blustery rhetoric — even if they are never adopted — and unite the GOP behind a new set of policies.” POLITICO
TWITTER DIPLOMACY — “Palestinians say Trump envoy’s Twitter shows peace deal won’t be fair,” by NBC’s Josh Lederman: “An NBC News analysis of the 1,561 tweets [Jason] Greenblatt sent between its launch in March 2017 and the end of April 2019 found that Greenblatt tweeted 186 times about what he described as acts of violence or terrorism by Palestinians, or roughly 12 percent of his tweets. His tweets include 211 about Hamas and 62 that criticize Palestinian leaders by name.
“He has never criticized Israel or any of its leaders, though dozens of his tweets praise Netanyahu and other Israeli officials.” NBC
2019 WATCH — WSJ’S VALERIE BAUERLEIN: “Republicans are looking to avoid a runoff in Tuesday’s primary for North Carolina’s do-over Ninth Congressional District race, a possibility that seemed unlikely in March when 10 candidates filed for the empty seat. …
“Avoiding a four-month runoff would be a boon to the Republican candidate, who will face Democrat Dan McCready in the fall. Mr. McCready had $1.6 million in cash on hand as of April 24 … In a recent poll, State Sen. Dan Bishop was the top candidate, with 31% support, while Stony Rushing, a gun-range owner and Union County commissioner, had 17%.” WSJ
2020 … HUFFPOST’S KEVIN ROBILLARD in Helena, Mont.: “Meet The Only 2020 Democratic Presidential Prospect To Win A Trump State”: Steve “Bullock and his team know his entrance into the race will be greeted with a few groans. … But Bullock and his entourage also are confident his surprisingly progressive-for-Montana profile and record will stand out enough to rise above the din of nearly two dozen candidates speaking simultaneously to overwhelmed primary voters. …
“[T]he message the governor wants to bring from Montana to the rest of the country is about more than simply defeating the president. He wants to fix the political system ― making campaign donations more transparent and less influential and creating a less partisan atmosphere … Bullock believes attracting support from Trump voters in red states isn’t just necessary to win, it’s also necessary to govern. The overall goal is to project a philosophy that’s both liberal enough to satiate his own party’s left and practical enough to win over centrists.” HuffPost
— NOLAN MCCASKILL: “‘The epitome of privilege’: Booker supporters seethe over Buttigieg mania”: “The similarities between their credentials — and the disparity between how their campaigns have been covered on the campaign trail — are frustrating Booker allies who question whether the media is giving the New Jersey senator a fair shot. … Other Democrats see Buttigieg’s rise as a reflection of entrenched racial and gender biases — that the Buttigieg bump would be impossible if he wasn’t a white man.” POLITICO
— JULIÁN CASTRO is out with an education policy platform, including universal pre-K, a $150 billion investment in school infrastructure, no tuition at public and community colleges, student loan reforms, student discipline reforms and a federal tax credit for teacher pay. Texas Tribune … The plan
— NYT’S SHANE GOLDMACHER in Iowa City: “Iowa’s Likely Outcome for 2020 Contenders: A Field of Broken Dreams”: “The rules of the Iowa caucuses have historically been inhospitable to all but the top finishers. … But a new wrinkle in 2020 is that Iowa will now deliver two sets of results. In the past, the party tallied up only how many delegates each candidate won. That will still happen. But for the first time, the total number of caucusgoers for each candidate will be made public, too, providing a new way for campaigns to spin the outcome.” NYT
— AFTERNOON READ … “What Do Native Americans Want From a President?” by David Montgomery in WaPo Magazine: “As the field of presidential contenders seems to grow larger each week, Indian Country is wearily anticipating another round of genuflections to the “sovereignty of tribes” and the “special government-to-government relationship” between the United States and this land’s First Nations.
“If campaign history is any guide, those lofty principles will trip off candidates’ tongues. But how would candidates apply those ideals to make concrete improvements in people’s lives? After hundreds of years of cruelty, indifference and insufficient good intentions, what is left for a candidate to say that could allow Native Americans to suspend their disbelief?” WaPo Magazine
— BOOKMARK THIS … “2020 Presidential Election Calendar,” by NYT’s Sarah Almukhtar, Jonathan Martin and Matt Stevens
SPOTTED: Mike Tyson and his family on Sunday at DCA, flying to Los Angeles.
MEDIAWATCH — Allan James Vestal is joining POLITICO’s interactives team. He previously was a computational journalist on the data and interactives team at The Dallas Morning News. … John Sides will be a political science professor at Vanderbilt. He currently teaches at GW and is editor in chief of WaPo’s Monkey Cage blog.
TRANSITIONS — Sean Bartlett is now comms director at the Center for Global Development. He previously was comms director for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Democratic staff. … Madeleine Weast is now project director at Firehouse Strategies. She most recently was comms director for Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.).
ENGAGED — Adam Morfeld, a Nebraska state senator and executive director and founder of Civic Nebraska, proposed to Rachel Ayalon, global initiatives officer at the University of Nebraska Lincoln campus. Two Instapics